What are the Odds!?

One of my favorite subjects in school was probability and statistics. I loved calculating the odds of rolling dice, flipping a coin, and drawing a playing card! Knowing the odds of an event occurring is helpful and used in many areas of life. 

• Insurance companies use probability to know how much to charge you and the chances of you getting into an accident based on multiple factors like age, location, and vehicle.
• Meteorologists use the knowledge to forecast the weather. 
• Casinos use probability to give their games of "chance" like slots and table games, just enough edge to make money, and yet not so much that you won't return to play again.

Sports Books also use probability as well as historical data to calculate the odds of a given sporting event. One common bet on sports is called the Money Line. It's a straight-up bet on who you think will win the game. There are many factors to be considered, in terms of probability, you have a 50% chance of choosing the winning team. 

When it comes to the Bible, probability and statistics come into play when you consider prophecy. Prophecy is a prediction of something happening. And the odds of it actually happening are also 50%. Either the event you predict will happen or it won't. 

• Jesus fulfilled prophecy when he was born of a virgin. 
• Jesus fulfilled prophecy when he was born in Bethlehem.
• Jesus fulfilled prophecy when he was killed by crucifixion. 

Scholars have said there are over 48 prophecies surrounding Jesus, his birth, life, and death. The odds that one man would fulfill more than even 1 prophecy become very slim quickly. For example, if Jesus were to fulfill just 2 prophecies, the odds become 25%. Add another prophecy and the odds are 12.5%. If you were to calculate Jesus fulfilling 4 prophecies it would be 1 in 4 or 6.25%. I took the numbers and dropped them into a Numbers spreadsheet and just extended them out to 48 prophecies. Here are my results. 

According to my calculations, the odds of one man fulfilling all 48 prophecies are 1 in 281,474,976,710,656 (1 in 281 trillion)! The percentage odds of this happening is 0.00000000000035527136788005%! Compare these odds to other common events today.

Odds of being struck by lightning in your lifetime: 1 in 15,300.

Odds of winning the lottery: 1 in 292.2 million.

Odds of being killed in a plane crash: 1 in 11 million.

There comes a point when probability is out of the realm of possibility and, for me at least, something supernatural, even miraculous is going on. I'm struck with the number of prophecies in the Bible as well as the fulfillment of those same prophecies. And here's the kicker - every prophecy in the Bible has come true! This is no longer a question of odds, but a matter of proof. Because in the natural world, given the odds, it's not really possible, but divinely orchestrated. 

So, if you want to play along, take out a coin and flip it over and over, each time predicting what will come up. Let me know how many you guess correctly in a row. You may get 3, even 4 in a row. But 48 guessing 48 flips in a row, while in the realm of possibility, would probably take a miracle! Which is what appears to be happening with the life of Jesus Christ. 

For an even more exhaustive examination of probability in the Bible, and probably more accurate, check out Peter Stoner's findings at https://firmisrael.org/learn/how-many-prophecies-did-jesus-fulfill/

The Mundane Days of Life

Groundhog Day is today! February 2, 20222. Which makes it 2/2/22 by the way. Punxsutawney Phil did see his shadow today which means 6 more weeks of winter. That is no surprise to us living in Northern Michigan! We usually don't wrap up winter until sometime in April! 

Have you seen the movie Groundhog Day with Bill Murray? Bill plays a self-centered Pittsburgh weatherman who becomes trapped into living out the same day again and again with no explanation. It's a great movie and also stars Andie MacDowell. I highly recommend it. Other movies like "Happy Death Day," "50 First Dates," and "Edge of Tomorrow" have tried to duplicate the "live-the-same-day-over-again" theme, but none have done it as well. 

There are special moments in our lives that stick out like vacations, birthdays, weddings, the birth of a child, baptisms, etc. But for the most part, we live most days just like every other. We live our lives in our own personal "Groundhog Day." We rise to an alarm, wash up, get dressed, and head out to work. We drive the same vehicle, along the same route, passing the same people. Our work may vary, but it's the same work with the same people, at the same place. The evening routine may vary, but it's still very similar each day with family, home, and bedtime routine. 

When we look at scripture, we read about spectacular events like Moses parting the Red Sea, David killing Goliath, and Elijah being taken up to heaven in a flaming chariot. Yet surrounding all those amazing events, those in the Bible lived mundane lives just like you and men. 

• Moses spent 40 years in the desert before God called Him.
• Elisha grew up a farmer prior to becoming God's prophet.
• John the Baptist lived in anonymity out in the desert before preaching.
• For about 30 years Jesus "grew in stature and wisdom and in favor with God and men" living a mundane life in Palestine. 

While we may feel we live a day-after-day loop, those days are never really the same. Our bodies are different. The people we interact with are different. We all experience life events that change our minds, moods, and behavior. 

Just like the movie Groundhog Day, we have the opportunity to make the next 24 hours whatever we want it to be. We can choose to be pessimistic, angry, introverted, and just a down-right pain to people. Or we can choose to have a positive outlook, smile, encourage other people, and basically love them. It's a choice we make every single morning. 

I love this quote 

“Sow a thought and you reap an action; sow an act and you reap a habit; sow a habit and you reap a character; sow a character and you reap a destiny.” - Ralph Waldo Emerson

The sowing we do takes place every day, over and over. Ultimately our destiny is decided by the daily decisions we make. Are you choosing to be faithful, joyful, and loving? Do you forgive, serve, and pour yourself out to others? Or are you choosing selfishness, hatred, and revenge? Are you jealous, prideful, and spiteful? How would you rate yourself? 

The choice is up to you - today and every day!